Do Convection-Permitting Ensembles Lead to More Skillful Short-Range Probabilistic Rainfall Forecasts over Tropical East Africa?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (CP-ENS) have been implemented in the midlatitudes for weather forecasting time scales over past decade, enabled by increase computational resources. Recently, efforts are being made to study benefits of CP-ENS tropical regions. This examines forecasts produced Met Office East Africa, 24 cases period April–May 2019. The CP-ENS, an with parameterized convection (Glob-ENS), and their deterministic counterparts evaluated against rainfall estimates derived from satellite observations (GPM-IMERG). CP configurations best representation diurnal cycle, although heavy amounts overestimated compared observations. Pairwise comparisons between different reveal that is generally most skillful forecast both 3- 24-h accumulations (97th percentile), followed forecast. More precisely, probabilistic rainfall, verified using a neighborhood approach, show at greater than 100 km, significantly better Glob-ENS, not as good found midlatitudes. Skill decreases lead varies diurnally, especially forecasts. underspread terms locations domain-averaged rainfall. demonstrates potential operational Africa gives specific suggestions further research development, including guidance.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Weather and Forecasting
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0882-8156', '1520-0434']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-20-0172.1